Mexico: May remittances recover on narrow ground

Research evidence excerpt

Mexico: May remittances recover on narrow ground

J P M O R G A N Latin America Economic Research

01 July 2026

Mexico

May remittances recover on narrow ground

• May inflows surprised modestly to the upside, increasing 3.8%oya EM, Economics Research

• Momentum remains somewhat positive Gabriel Lozano

(52-55) 5540-9558

• Larger transfers still offset fewer transactions gabriel.lozano@jpmorgan.com

• In real terms, remittances remain on a declining post-pandemic trend BancoMúltiple,J.P.Morgan,J.P.MorganS.A.,GrupoInstituciónFinancierode Banca

Remittances inflows reached US$5.61bn in May, increasing 3.8%oya, slightly Santiago Homberg Saury

above our forecast of US$5.55bn and 2.6%oya. In seasonally adjusted terms, (52-55) 5540-9499

santiago.hombergsaury@jpmchase.com

inflows rose 2.4%samr to US$5.41bn, reversing April’s 3.5% decline. Momentum J.P. Morgan Casa de Bolsa, S.A. de C.V., J.P.

remained somewhat positive but eased to 4.1%3m/3m, saar, from 5.2% previously, Morgan Grupo Financiero

pointing to a gradual stabilization rather than a sharp acceleration.

Remittances to Mexico

%3m/3m, saar

-10

-20

Apr 22 Oct 22 Apr 23 Oct 23 Apr 24 Oct 24 Apr 25 Oct 25 Apr 26

Source: J.P. Morgan with data from Banxico

The improvement, however, was modest. The number of transactions declined

1.7%oya to 13.9mn, while the average transfer increased 5.6%oya to US$404.

Growth was once again entirely driven by larger individual transfers rather than by

a recovery in transfer frequency. The same pattern is visible year to date, with a

5.2% increase in the average transfer more than offsetting a 2.3% decline in

transactions.

More importantly, stronger USD inflows have not reversed the deterioration in the

purchasing power generated by remittances. In real MXN terms, inflows stood at

MX$66.7bn in May.