Mexico: June surveys point to strong end of 2Q26

Research evidence excerpt

Mexico: June surveys point to strong end of 2Q26

J P M O R G A N Latin America Economic Research

01 July 2026

Mexico

June surveys point to strong end of 2Q26

• The INEGI surveys anticipate a booming June EM, Economics Research

• INEGI’s trend survey showed a construction rebound Gabriel Lozano

(52-55) 5540-9558

• Investor sentiment improves on the margin, but remains low gabriel.lozano@jpmorgan.com

• IMEF PMIs mixed: Manufacturing lower, services higher BancoMúltiple,J.P.Morgan,J.P.MorganS.A.,GrupoInstituciónFinancierode Banca

Last week, we revised 2Q26 GDP growth to 5.5% saar (vs. an earlier 3.3% saar) Santiago Homberg Saury

and full-year growth to 1.2%y/y from 1.0% on the back of stronger-than-expected (52-55) 5540-9499

santiago.hombergsaury@jpmchase.com

April data and our expectation of a similarly robust June (even if May data cools J.P. Morgan Casa de Bolsa, S.A. de C.V., J.P.

slightly). June survey data was supportive of our view. Following weakness in Morgan Grupo Financiero

May, the INEGI survey data was positive, even if the IMEF PMIs were more

mixed.

GDP trend survey model

%3m/3m, saar

GDP 3m/3m saar = c + 3.74*dlog(Global Trend Indicator)

15 R^2 =0.841

-5

-10 Actual Fitted

-15

Mar 21 Dec 21 Sep 22 Jun 23 Mar 24 Dec 24 Sep 25 Jun 26

Source: J.P. Morgan with data from INEGI

Starting with INEGI surveys, the Global Trend Survey showed improvements

in three out of the four economic sectors it tracks and rose overall 0.8pts to 50.8.

The standout was construction (+5.5pts m/m), which had already seen a massive

jump in April IP numbers. The sector saw a spike in the value of construction

projects for both primary and secondary contractors, as well as in the number of

contracts and subcontracts awarded. Manufacturing also delivered a strong