Mexico: Banxico survey — June inflation expectations cooling

Research evidence excerpt

Mexico: Banxico survey — June inflation expectations cooling

J P M O R G A N Latin America Economic Research

01 July 2026

Mexico

Banxico survey — June inflation expectations cooling

• Inflation expectations for 2026 down to 4.20%oya from 4.35% EM, Economics Research

• Growth unchanged, with 2026 consensus at 1.1%y/y Gabriel Lozano

(52-55) 5540-9558

• Monetary policy rate expected on hold for the rest of the year at 6.5% gabriel.lozano@jpmorgan.com

• Analyst sentiment shows some improvement but remains pessimistic BancoMúltiple,J.P.Morgan,J.P.MorganS.A.,GrupoInstituciónFinancierode Banca

The June Banxico analyst survey landed at an interesting moment for both CPI and Santiago Homberg Saury

growth, as back-to-back downside inflation surprises pushed year-end headline (52-55) 5540-9499

santiago.hombergsaury@jpmchase.com

inflation expectations lower, and despite April's GDP proxy surprising to the J.P. Morgan Casa de Bolsa, S.A. de C.V., J.P.

upside, there were no major changes to growth expectations after last month's Morgan Grupo Financiero

downward adjustment. In this context, policy rate expectations remained

unchanged for the rest of the year, in line with our call; even so, in our view, benign

inflation prints and economic slack in the coming months could allow Banxico to

re-adopt a more dovish stance.

Looking at the details, headline inflation expectations have reversed some of the

uptrend seen earlier this year, pulling year-end headline inflation down by 15bps

in both average and median terms to 4.21%oya and 4.20%, respectively. That

remains above our 4.1% call and Banxico’s 3.5%. The scenario distribution has

shifted as well, with the downward movement in the central scenario pushing the

distribution probability to the left.

Inflation scenarios distribution