CEEMEA Petrochemicals: History Rhymes: Are the Bust-Boom 1980s Coming Back?

Research evidence excerpt

CEEMEA Petrochemicals: History Rhymes: Are the Bust-Boom 1980s Coming Back?

J P M O R G A N CEEMEA Equity Research

02 July 2026

CEEMEA Petrochemicals

History Rhymes: Are the Bust-Boom 1980s Coming

Back?

While there remains ongoing uncertainty regarding the timing and extent of the CEEMEA Chemicals and Healthcare

ACre-opening of the SOH, markets are already largely discounting a return to free Alex Comer

movement. Oil and product prices are retracing towards pre-crisis levels faster than (44-20) 7134-5945

many expected, dragging share prices with them, even though physical supply alex.r.comer@jpmorgan.com

chains continue to face tight conditions. The need to rebuild inventories combined J.P. Morgan Securities plc

with a gradual recovery of damaged production assets could yet cause a temporary

bounce in petrochemical prices and margins. However, investor focus is rapidly

Ethylene Supply/ Demand & Utilizationshifting back to concerns over excess supply rather than shortages. In this report

1978 -2032Ewe examine the lessons and similarities between the deep cycle trough and

subsequent petrochemical boom of the1980s and the conditions currently being

witnessed today.

The1980s: Remembered for frizzy perms, shoulder pads and Jilly Cooper novels,

the 1980s began with an oil price-inspired recession, followed by heavy defence

spending, Reaganomics, a collapse in oil prices, a consumer boom and a

petrochemical super cycle. The decade ended with the emergence of Britpop, the

fall of the Berlin Wall and the beginning of the end of the USSR. Over the last

couple of years we have highlighted what we see as growing parallels between

current conditions in the petrochemical industry and those of the early 1980s (see