Oxford Nanopore: 1H 2026 Preview: Expect 14.5% LC Revenue growth in 1H, potential for a c. 2% trim to Cons FY26 Revenues due to China/MENA headwinds though path to Adj. EBITDA breakeven intact

Research evidence excerpt

Oxford Nanopore: 1H 2026 Preview: Expect 14.5% LC Revenue growth in 1H, potential for a c. 2% trim to Cons FY26 Revenues due to China/MENA headwinds though path to Adj. EBITDA breakeven intact

ll,

Khushi Bihani

we expect 1H 2026 Revenues to be modestly below ONT’s implied guide, with a (91-22) 6157-4103

potential 2026 guidance revision implying c. 2% cuts to Consensus 2026 Revenues khushi.bihani@jpmorgan.com

in our view, though this should be reasonably well anticipated by the market. We J.P. Morgan India Private Limited

continue to see ONT as on track to outperform their peers with JPMe for a 21%

Specialist Sales contact details:2027-30 Revenue CAGR (PacBio: 14%, Illumina: 7%), for which we see ONT’s

relative valuation of 3x 2027 Revenue, compared with 6x for Illumina and 5x for Marjan Daeipour - Specialist Sales -

European Healthcare

PACB as undemanding.

(44 20) 7134-1329

• We forecast 1H 2026 Revenue growth of 14.5% LC, c. 5% below a stale marjan.daeipour@jpmorgan.com

BBG Consensus and c. 2% below ONT’s implied guidance for 1H. We

forecast 14.5% LC Revenue growth in 1H to £118.9m, c. 5% below a stale BBG

Consensus and c. 2% below ONT’s implied Revenue guide for 1H of £121.5m,

based on their expected 45% weighting towards 1H 2026 and on the implied

midpoint of the FY26 guide of £270m (21-25% LC Revenue growth with a 2%

FX headwind). For Research, we forecast 3% LC Revenue growth to £72.8m,

a deceleration on the 15% growth seen in 2H 2025, driven by a slowdown in

China and MENA. For China, we expected continued deterioration as a result

of export control restrictions, evidenced by the weak performance in China

reported by peers Illumina* (China Revenues down 29% LC) and PacBio in 1Q

2026 (APAC down 16% LC in part due to customer deferrals ahead of the