CEEMEA Monthly Wrap - June and Q2: What‘s so funny about peace, love and (memos of) understanding?

Research evidence excerpt

CEEMEA Monthly Wrap - June and Q2: What‘s so funny about peace, love and (memos of) understanding?

ala (-27%) and Northam (-26%).

Gold names such as AngloGold (-16%) and Gold Fields (-15%) were not far behind.

The re-opening of the Straits failed to provide sufficient cover or a meaningful catalyst

for these names. A double whammy for the space, as Sasol too underperformed on the

back of falling oil prices. The reason? A hawkish debut from Warsh has shifted the

narrative — from an oil reversal catalyst to pure Fed-watching. The marginal buyer

remains limited, with China and India retail demand running cold. June was the second

worst month for Gold since 3Q08, and this dynamic has been extremely consequential

for SA equities. Surprisingly, yields held up while the Rand remains robust, trading

within the 16.25–16.50 range we've grown accustomed to. On the macro front, SA

printed a stronger-than-expected 1Q '26 GDP figure. Economic momentum in the first

quarter surprised to the upside, accelerating to 0.5% q/q (2.2% q/q saar), with solid

performances across trade, construction, and finance. The primary contribution to

growth came from the tertiary sector, with finance adding 0.2ppts on the back of

increased activity in financial intermediation and auxiliary services. On inflation, prices

rose less than expected to 4.5% oya in May (from 4.0% in April; cons: 4.7%, JPMe:

4.8%), though JPM economists estimate roughly two-thirds of the downside surprise

reflects timing and temporary factors. The standout in the May release was the public

transportation segment, where costs marginally declined 0.4% m/m — against

expectations of a sizeable jump of 7%–9% m/m.

Hungary (+3.8%) outperformed Czech (-2.9%) and Poland (-6.9%) in June.