UNH to Set Positive Tone; Reiterate Top Pick

Research evidence excerpt

UNH to Set Positive Tone; Reiterate Top Pick

IdeaMand government programs. We expect this will become increasing important for the

stock as AI proof-points build. We estimate AI could drive ~20% EPS upside (not

inclusive of new high-margin Insight revenue streams - our recent MCO/AI analysis

here) .

Bridging to 2027 Suggests Meaningful Upside Potential- Exhibit 1 Exhibit 2 .

While our estimates remain conservative, the high end of our 2027 framework

suggests 22% upside to both our estimate and Cons if UNH executes on its margin

recovery strategy and moves closer to target profitability levels. This translates into

an illustrative '27 EPS range of $21.07 to $25.60, suggesting a midpoint ($23.33)

well above our estimate ($20.96) and consensus ($20.94). This is not baking in

incremental AI-induced savings that could materialize. We raise our PT to $468

(from $453) on greater conviction in hitting the higher end of our LT bridge

assumptions. Our new PT implies 18.5x 2028 EPS, from 17.9x prior, and vs. shares

currently trading ~16.6x our 2028 EPS.

Quick One-Liners for MCOs into 2Q Reports (CVS, CI, ELV, CNC, MOH, HUM):

• CVS (OW) - We expect a clean print, even across the HCB/PBM segment, the

primary area of focus. We anticipate all segments can be relatively in-line,

while its possible HCB may surprise to the upside on better utilization. MSe

unchanged with 2026 EPS MSe $7.37 (vs. Cons $7.42), MLR MSe 90.9% (vs.

VA Cons 90.3%). Another question area for the call will be Stars

recalculations following the CLOV lawsuit decision last week (for all MA

players).

• CI (OW) - Investors seek reassurance around PBM model transformation,

where PBS earnings are expected to step down by ~$700–800M in 2026

and remain roughly flat in 2027, reflecting ongoing contracting activity and