A $6 Trillion Question: Are Health Costs Under Control?

Research evidence excerpt

A $6 Trillion Question: Are Health Costs Under Control?

North America Insight

June 26, 2026 10:00 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMHealthcare Facilities, US Economics, Public Policy, & Mark T Schmidt, CFA

Municipal Strategy Strategist

Mark.Schmidt1@morganstanley.com +1 212 296-8702

Craig Hettenbach

Equity AnalystA $6 Trillion Question: Are Craig.Hettenbach@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-6435

Erin Wright

Equity AnalystHealth Costs Under Control? Erin.Wright1@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-6137

Heather Berger

Payers have pushed back on costs as healthcare spending nears Economist

Heather.Berger@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-2296

$6tn. But this recent slowdown appears temporary. Prices Diego Anzoategui

should firm. Cuts may shift costs rather than reduce them. EconomistDiego.Anzoategui@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-8573

Healthcare inflation's pause reflects measurement more than Ariana Salvatore

underlying trends. Hiring can continue. EquityAriana.Salvatore@morganstanley.comStrategist

Aryaman Singh

How does 6%+ YoY growth in healthcare spending square with healthcare Strategist

inflation under 3%Y? At first glance, it looks like the US may have finally bent the Aryaman@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-1993

cost curve. Healthcare spending growth at 6%Y is down from 9% two years ago. Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+

Andrew SheetsPrices have softened, too, even as utilization remains elevated: official measures of

Strategist

hospital prices, health insurance premiums, and pharmaceutical prices all show a Andrew.Sheets@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-2905

disinflationary trend. If sustained, this would be notable: healthcare's contribution to

Morgan Stanley India Company Private Limited+

inflation has been twice what it was pre-COVID. Gowtami P Pyla