Disney: F3Q Preview: Focus Remains on Parks Growth and SVOD Progression; Guide Raise May Be Contingent on Theatrical

Research evidence excerpt

Disney: F3Q Preview: Focus Remains on Parks Growth and SVOD Progression; Guide Raise May Be Contingent on Theatrical

y Forecasts (FYE Sep)

Overweight and establish a Dec-27 PT of $140 (vs. our Dec-26 PT of $139).

Adj. EPS ($)

2025A 2026E 2027E

• Experiences: forecast revenue accelerating to +8% y/y on +1% domestic Q1 1.77 1.64A 1.80

attendance. We expect domestic attendance to improve sequentially to +1% Q2 1.46 1.59A 1.65

y/y in F3Q, compared with -1% y/y in F2Q and -1.5% y/y in F1Q (JPMe, Q3 1.61 1.85 2.09

adjusted for hurricane comp). Our view is based on management’s constructive Q4 1.11 1.59 1.80

FY 5.93 6.66 7.35

mid-May commentary that international visitation into the U.S. parks is not

deteriorating further, that the company has largely lapped the prior-year Style Exposure

headwinds, and that it is seeing improving trends outside of Canadian-based

guests (we assume this refers mainly to UK and Mexico tourists). On balance,

we believe upside to the +1% domestic attendance forecast is limited, noting

Comcast’s cautious messaging on domestic parks given in early June and

mixed traffic indicators (see Figure 4). Specifically, Orlando and Tampa

airports saw combined passenger traffic up +1.8% y/y in April vs. +3.4% y/y

in January-March. WDW wait times, as tracked by Thrill Data, also softened

to -5% y/y in F3Q from -1% y/y in F2Q. Placer.io foot traffic estimates for

Disney’s domestic properties show more positive trends with traffic improving

to MSD% y/y in April-May vs. +2% in F2Q. On March 29, Disneyland Paris

opened the immersive World of Frozen land, which should support

international revenue from F3Q. Net-net, we model Experiences revenue of

$9.82b in F3Q (+8% y/y) and broadly maintain our segment OI estimate of

$2.79b (+11% y/y).