China: NBS manufacturing PMI indicates mild demand recovery

Research evidence excerpt

China: NBS manufacturing PMI indicates mild demand recovery

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Economic Research

30 June 2026

China: NBS manufacturing PMI

indicates mild demand recovery

• June NBS PMIs saw mild improvement, with continued expansion in output Emerging Markets Asia, Economic

PMI. and Policy Research

• Demand improved modestly, with new orders rebounding to 51.2. Feng Zhu (852) 2800 1745

• Recovery remains two-speed: high-tech and equipment manufacturing rose feng.zhu@jpmorgan.com

further. Tingting Ge

• Lower oil prices on the Middle East truce eased input costs, but output prices (852)tingting.ge@jpmorgan.com2800-0143

fell back to 48.2; deflation concerns may creep back.

Jiayi Li

• Policy support is needed to broaden demand, support SMEs, and stabilize (852) 2800-5229

employment. jiayi.c.li@jpmorgan.com

Tongfang Yuan

China’s NBS manufacturing PMI pointed to broad improvements in production and (852) 2800-0085

demand conditions in June. Output PMI edged higher, while both new orders and new tongfang.yuan@jpmorgan.com

export orders rebounded strongly into expansionary territory. With receding tail risks JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Hong Kong Branch

from the energy shock, input cost pressures have begun to ease with a more moderate

reading in the input prices PMI, but a declining output prices PMI could pose margin

squeeze risks.

NBS manufacturing PMI improved 0.3pts to 50.3 in June, close to our expectations

(JPM: 50.2; consensus: 50.1), with gains across major production and demand

components. Output PMI rose 0.2pts to 51.4, , suggesting that the April-May soft

patch did not intensify. Both new orders and new export orders PMIs rebounded, up

1.3pts and 1.5pts to 51.2 and 50.1, respectively, after slipping below 50 in May. This