The Point for CEEMEA

Research evidence excerpt

The Point for CEEMEA

valuations have compressed, reducing the risk of a valuation-driven correction.

Within Growth, outperformance is increasingly skewed toward earnings delivery,

particularly durable earnings growth, rather than forward-looking or top-line

metrics. Separately recent flow and positioning trends point to divergence with

leaderships more strongly expressed in Developed Markets, particularly North

America.

David T Chew | Richard W Schlatter | Anju Bhandari | Yue Hin Pong

Equity Markets Positioning Model - US Large Cap Positioning Eases, Europe

Softens

Global equity positioning is diverging, led by the US, where bearish flows are

building in Nasdaq and S&P 500 alongside continued rotation into small caps.

Aggregate positioning remains broadly stable, but this masks a growing imbalance

for Nasdaq, where longs are elevated despite rising losses, leaving the market

exposed to further long liquidation. In Europe, flows have weakened, with renewed

short build and long unwinds. Positioning has moved back toward neutral across

EuroStoxx and DAX. For Asia, KOSPI positioning is still bullish and extended

despite the recent market decline, while Hang Seng is the most extreme bearish

position globally, dominated by profitable shorts. This leaves the index exposed to

rising short squeeze risk.

Africa Economics & Strategy Weekly - Tanzania: The re-emergence of shilling

seasonality and unanswered questions

After a series of meetings with government and private sector actors in Dar-es-

Salaam and Dodoma last week, we examine whether new economic trends are

restoring a more seasonal pattern to the Tanzanian shilling after a period of

considerable volatility. We then look at several unresolved questions hanging over

the macroeconomic outlook for the country.

David Cowan