The Point for Latin America

Research evidence excerpt

The Point for Latin America

view, the Iran conflict has accelerated the drive for new LNG projects in diversified

geographies; we expect the FID in 4Q26. We reiterate our Buy rating for YPF: A

structural beneficiary of the new energy outlook.

Andrés Cardona | Gabriel Barra

Grupo Mateus SA (GMAT3.SA) - New Tax Deficiency Notice Expands Existing

Dispute; No Reason to Expect Provisions or Near-Term Cash Outflow

GMAT disclosed that its wholesale subsidiary, Armazém Mateus, received a new

Notice of Infraction from the Brazilian Federal Revenue Service. Similar to the

notice issued in September 2024, the assessment challenges the exclusion of

presumed ICMS tax credits from the IRPJ/CSLL taxable base, this time covering

fiscal years 2022-23. The new assessment totals R$1.28bn, versus R$1.03bn in

the prior case. We view this as an extension of the existing tax dispute rather

than a new issue. Our view remains unchanged from our previous note: we do not

expect the company to record provisions at this stage, as mgmt. classified the

contingency as a "possible loss" (consistent with the treatment adopted for the

2024 assessment ). While we do not expect any near-term P&L or cash flow

impact, we cannot discard that the larger disputed amount could weigh on

investor sentiment. We will continue to monitor developments (e.g. administrative

proceedings) closely.

João Pedro Soares

Raizen (RAIZ4.SA) - Placing “Under Review” given the ongoing restructuring and

extrajudicial recovery process

We are placing Raízen shares on “Under Review” status and withdrawing our active

investment rating and financial estimates, given the ongoing restructuring plan

that is under negotiation with investors and creditors, while the company asked

for a extrajudicial recovery process in Brazil.

Gabriel Barra