1H26 pre-close: lighter than expected

Research evidence excerpt

1H26 pre-close: lighter than expected

Update

June 30, 2026 07:43 AM GMT

RMB Morgan Stanley Proprietary Limited+MThungela Resources Ltd | Europe Brian Morgan

Equity Analyst

1H26 pre-close: lighter than Brian.Morgan3@rmbmorganstanley.comChristopher Nicholson +27 11 587-0803

Equity Strategist and Analyst

Christopher.Nicholson@rmbmorganstanley.com +27 11 587-0816

expected

Thungela Resources Ltd (TGAJ.J, TGA SJ)

EEMEA - Metals & Mining | South Africa

Reaction to earnings

Stock Rating Underweight

Unchanged Modest shortfall Modest revision lower Industry View In-Line

Impact to our thesis Financial results versus consensus Direction of next 12-month Price target ZAc 10,000

consensus EPS Shr price, close (Jun 29, 2026) ZAc 9,950

52-Week Range ZAc 18,061- 7,310

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research Mkt cap, curr (mn) ZAR 13,514

Net debt (12/26e) (mn)* ZAR (7,124)

Thungela has released a pre-close update for 1H26. In general the result is a bit EV, curr (mn)* ZAR 7,695

lighter than we expected. Price realisations in both South Africa and Australia are * = GAAP or approximated based on GAAP

below expectations while costs in South Africa came in higher than expected.

Volumes are broadly in line with expectations.

Net cash at 30 June is expected to be R5.9-6.1b. This is below MSe of R7.7b.

Included in our numbers is a R2b forex gain, with the company today guiding this to

be only R1b.

The company has updated the market on the sale of Kleinkopje as previously

announced. The sale will reduce environmental liabilities by R1b. There will be a

positive impact on EPS in 1H26, though we think its likely to be excluded from

headline. Total unfunded liabilities at December came to R6.2b. Goedehoop North is

for sale and this should reduce the liability further, we think.