Thungela Resources Ltd (TGAJ.J): 1H26 production softer vs Citi/consensus; guidance maintained; portfolio optimization positive in our view

Research evidence excerpt

Thungela Resources Ltd (TGAJ.J): 1H26 production softer vs Citi/consensus; guidance maintained; portfolio optimization positive in our view

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30 Jun 2026 04:24:15 ET │ 11 pages

Thungela Resources Ltd (TGAJ.J)

1H26 production softer vs CitiE/consensus; guidance maintained;

portfolio optimization positive in our view

CITI’S TAKE Buy

Thungela released an operational update for 1H26e today. Thermal coal Price (29 Jun 26 17:00) R99.50

export saleable production is expected to increase by +4% y/y to 8.3Mt Target price R250.00

(1H25: 7.9Mt), lower vs CitiE (8.7 Mt) and VA consensus (8.6Mt). y/y

Expected share price return 151.3% increase was primarily due to lower base as Thungela faced challenging

geological conditions at Ensham mine in 1H25. Production from South Expected dividend yield 30.2%

Africa is likely to decline by -2% y/y (temporary challenges at Zibulo mine) Expected total return 181.4%

while production from Australia is likely to increase by 25% y/y. FOB cost Market Cap R13,979M

is likely to be above guidance range at SA ops while below guidance range US$845M

for Australian ops (exchange rate and consolidation benefit). The weaker

production vs CitiE was driven by lower-than-expected production at

South African operations. Guidance maintained and now implies c9% h/h

increase in 2H (based on mid-point of the guidance). In line vs the higher Ephrem RaviAC

production export increased by c6% in line vs our estimates. +44-20-7986-2462

ephrem.ravi@citi.com

Portfolio optimisation in South Africa- positive in our view — TGA sold the Shashi Shekhar, CFA

Kleinkopje mining right at Khwezela mine continue to progress the sale of Goedehoop +91-22-4277-5028

North. This transaction will result in a reduction of the environmental provisions of shashi.shekhar@citi.com