EM FX Daily Report - 30th June 2026. Tue Jun 30 2026

Research evidence excerpt

EM FX Daily Report - 30th June 2026. Tue Jun 30 2026

Laoise Ni Thighearnaigh AC Sales & Trading J P M O R G A Nlaoise.nithighearnaigh@jpmorgan.com

JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A, London Branch 30 June 2026

EM FX

RUB More upward pressure on usd/rub on Monday as spot went higher above 78.00. The recent

move has been mainly driven by local flows, but corporate RHS interest also added to the

momentum higher. It will be important to keep an eye on MoF announcement around fx

interventions this week, but higher USDRUB still feels the weaker side this week.

ZAR It was a very quiet start to the week, but the greenback consolidated further lower yesterday as

equities moved higher across the board. In ZAR, we saw better demand for the currency from

HF accounts, which kept USDZAR trading mostly around the 16.40–16.45 range. I still think

ZAR can outperform in this environment—especially as oil prices come off the highs—so I’m

staying short USDZAR here. The BER’s current inflation expectations rose to 4.4% in Q2

(from 3.6% in Q1), with the two-year average inflation expectations also ticking up to 3.9%

(from 3.6%). The data are backward-looking and don’t capture the latest move lower in oil, but

they should be enough to keep the SARB cautious for now.

TRY USDTRY price action remains pinned close to state bank offers with lower funding leading to

some position reduction from internationals over the past few sessions. State banks are

currently on the offer at 46.6600 in line with the expected crawl. We continue to monitor local

flows and there are still no meaningful signs of local retail dollarisation. Political risk has also

eased somewhat in recent weeks and our base case for elections still remain closer to late-2027.