French inflation declines significantly in June

Research evidence excerpt

French inflation declines significantly in June

J P M O R G A N Europe Economic Research

30 June 2026

French inflation declines

significantly in June

• Decline in June French inflation skewed towards fuel prices; core also declined Economic and Policy Research

• Non-energy goods spending hit has been modest through the shock Raphael Brun-Aguerre

(33-1) 8703 2409

The French preliminary estimate showed that HICP inflation fell 0.8%-pt to raphael.x.brun-aguerre@jpmorgan.com

2.0%oya and that CPI inflation fell 0.6%-pt to 1.8%oya. These were larger declines J.P. Morgan Securities plc

than we expected (2.5%oya and 2.1%oya, respectively). Looking at the CPI

details, the decline was broad-based. Energy price inflation fell 5.4%-pt to

11.2%oya, lead by a decline in fuel prices based on EC weekly price data. Food

price inflation also declined modestly (-0.2%-pt to 0.9%oya). And outside energy

and food, core inflation declined, from 1.2%oya to 1.0%.

The decline in core inflation was broad-based. Services price inflation, which

increased 0.3%-pt in May, fell by the same magnitude in June to get back to

1.8%oya. The rise in accommodation services prices in May was strong by

historical standards, which, in our view, was linked to the holiday pattern (more

bank holidays), and we expected some normalisation in June. Core goods price

inflation also fell from -0.6%oya to -0.9%oya. This is partly linked to the timing

of the sales period. The statistics office INSEE mentioned that the number of sales

days in June was larger than last year, which was a drag on core prices. This would

be a temporary effect. At the same time, the government is considering lengthening

the sales period in July. Retailers have not benefited significantly from the sales

period so far due to the very hot weather.