EOG Resources: 2Q26 Earnings Preview: Anticipating Another Upbeat Print; Well Watching in the Middle East on UAE and Bahrain Exploration Program

Research evidence excerpt

EOG Resources: 2Q26 Earnings Preview: Anticipating Another Upbeat Print; Well Watching in the Middle East on UAE and Bahrain Exploration Program

027E

respectively. We believe that our better-than-expected estimates are driven by Q1 2.87 3.41A 3.59

higher production volumes during the quarter, as we model 2Q26 total production Q2 2.32 5.16 3.20

Q3 2.71 3.90 3.33

at 1,408 MBoe/d (including oil production volumes of 551 MBo/d) at $1.62bn of Q4 2.27 3.91 3.52

total capex during the quarter. Our estimates compare to current STe of 1,392 FY 10.17 16.38 13.64

MBoe/d (549 MBo/d of oil volumes) at $1.62bn of capex. We do note that our 2Q26

Style ExposureCFPS of $8.21 is +3.2% above STe of $7.96, which we believe could be driven by

our lower current tax estimate. As commodity prices have decreased significantly

since the company’s guidance in early May, we think EOG’s current tax expense

for 2Q26 and the full year could trend near the lower end of its guidance range. As

a reminder, EOG increased its current tax guide for 2026 on the 1Q26 call to

$2,270mm vs. the original guide of $1,125mm with the 4Q25 print. The cal26

futures strip has declined to $69.79 per bbl from $88.57 per bbl at the time of their

1Q26 CC and $64.40 per bbl when EOG held its 4Q25 CC at the end of February.

In our updated model, we estimate $521mm of current taxes in 2Q26 (vs.

company’s guidance of $525-625mm).

EOG’s well productivity in the Delaware Basin was a key point of investor debate

in 2025, as the company completed its shift to co-develop a broader set of landing

zones across the stratigraphic column in 2025. Our updated analysis points to a

meaningful uptick in EOG’s oil well productivity on a YoY basis in the Delaware

Basin, with 2026 wells trending 27% above the company’s 2025 type curve and 5%