JPM E&P Valuation Analysis: Analyzing E&P Valuations at Updated Strip Pricing for 2026-27 Amid Oil Price Volatility

Research evidence excerpt

JPM E&P Valuation Analysis: Analyzing E&P Valuations at Updated Strip Pricing for 2026-27 Amid Oil Price Volatility

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

30 June 2026

JPM E&P Valuation Analysis

Analyzing E&P Valuations at Updated Strip Pricing for

2026-27 Amid Oil Price Volatility

JPM View: Ahead of the 2Q26 preview season, we thought it would be useful to Oil & Gas Exploration & Production

ACpublish a set of valuation charts for our E&P coverage at updated 2026/2027 strip Arun Jayaram

pricing of $76.44/$66.79 per bbl WTI & $3.65/$3.47 per MMBtu NYMEX gas (1-212) 622-8541

(based on closing prices on 6/28/26). In this note, we rank our coverage group on arun.jayaram@jpmchase.com

key valuation metrics including FCF yield, FCF/EV yield, EV/EBITDA multiple, Pankaj Bhatter, CFA

EV/DACF multiple, and leverage metrics. One caveat to our sensitivity analysis (1-212) 622-3795

is that we have left our published capex and production estimates unchanged, pankaj.bhatter@jpmchase.com

though we note that changes to development plans are possible in a higher price Jack Jerusalmi

environment. (1-212) 622-6552

jack.jerusalmi@jpmorgan.com

• FCF metrics at strip pricing. The E&P sector trades at a median FCF yield J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

of 12.7%/11.4% in 2026/2027 using updated strip pricing as of 6/28/26. On

FCF/EV, the group trades at 10.5%/10.5% yields in 2026-27. By sub-segment,

Oily Large Cap E&Ps are trading at a 2026 FCF yield of 13.6%, Oily SMid

E&Ps at 15.3%, and Gassy E&Ps at 11.1%. In 2027, the Large Caps are trading

at FCF yields of 11.1%, Oily SMids at 15.6%, and Gassy E&Ps at 11.4%. We

show 2026-2027 FCF/EV at the individual company level in Figure 10FCF/EVYield–2026(StripPricing) and

Figure 11FCF/EVYield–2027(StripPricing).