US MARKET INTELLIGENCE | MORNING BRIEFING

Research evidence excerpt

US MARKET INTELLIGENCE | MORNING BRIEFING

JUNE 30, 2026

IDEAS & INSIGHTS – IN BRIEF

Market Intelligence will not be publishing July 2 – July 6.

• QUICK THOUGHTS ON THE MKT – We give color on bond yields / fx, credit, earnings preview,

macro data, and an update on US / Iran

• NFP SCENARIO ANALYSIS – Feroli sees 125k jobs being added, versus the Street’s estimate of

110k and 172k jobs in the prior print. For the unemployment rate (U.3) he sees 4.3% vs. 4.3% prior.

For Average Hourly Earnings, he sees +0.2% MoM and +3.4% YoY.

• MKT INTEL’S CONSUMER CASH PILE NOTE – our June update is here and we include snippets

below.

• DELTA-ONE POSITIONING & FLOWS – Bram tells us that Asia equity futures bid; ETF investors

favor Memory/Semis/Real Estate, cut Commodities/Crypto; HFs sell NDX, buy SPX/RTY futures; ETF

rebalance noise persists

• US MKT INTEL VIEW – we maintain our Tactical Bullish call and update the Monetization Menu

• JPM RESEARCH MID-YEAR OUTLOOK – Samantha Azzarello summarizes each outlook into 2-3

bullet points with relevant charts; her note is here. Copies of each outlook are linked in her note.

JPM MARKET INTEL MORNING UPDATES

• SPX +0.1%, NDX +0.1%, RTY +0.1%. WTI +14bps at $70.85, NatGas +91bps to $3.21, UK NatGas

+240bps to £1.0502, Gold +10bps to $4,020, Silver +79bps to $58.72, 10Y @ 4.365%, and VIX @

17.59.

• US: Futs are a touch above unchanged following yesterday’s rally, with markets behaving as though

period-end dynamics have now completed. With the major US holiday coming up, keep an eye on low

liquidity moves in the region. Bond yields are flat to down 1bp with the curve flattening. USD is

stronger, looking erase all of yesterday’s losses. Cmdtys are stronger with crude flat into today’s US /