The SMID Point

Research evidence excerpt

The SMID Point

Roundup |

Tuesday, 30 June 2026 30 Jun 2026 07:00:00 ET

ACCompany | Industry Citi North America Research

+1-212-816-5062

Company

Canadian Solar (CSIQ.O) - Musings From Mesquite

We toured CSIQ’s TX module facility and met with management. Once ramped to

10GW this year, Mesquite will be the single-largest module plant in the U.S. CSIQ

could potentially recognize ~$700mm in 45X module assembly credits at full

utilization, which is significant, especially given an apparent repeat credit buyer

base and order visibility beyond a safe harbor backlog. However, the $0.07/W

credit partly goes towards higher domestic manufacturing cost. High automation

along with expertise transfer from SE Asia should facilitate IN's cell capacity ramp,

though full ~6GW utilization appears to be a 2H27 event at the earliest, in our

view, suggesting continued NT reliance on PFE-compliant cell imports, which is a

cost risk with the looming polysilicon Section 232 outcome. Lastly, we expect SE

Asia BESS capacity to be increased from the current 3GWh to serve domestic U.S.

orders of likely >5GWh next year.

Sell/High Risk | Target price US$11.00

Vikram Bagri

Enphase Energy (ENPH.O) - Takeaways from Investor Call with ENPH

We hosted a call with Zach Freedman, Senior Director and Head of IR. The U.S.

market remains largely soft near-term (~30% Y/Y decline in 2026) with 1Q as the

trough for sell through. In Europe, solar sales appear to be cooling off post the Iran

conflict, but storage sales in Netherlands and France continue to be strong. On

SST, ENPH continues to build out its offering targeting data center and utility

applications, with active customer engagement across multiple GW scale RFPs.

The solution leverages GaN-based architecture and is positioned at a lower cost