CoTD: Sustained Cycle Momentum But Equities Need Revisions

Research evidence excerpt

CoTD: Sustained Cycle Momentum But Equities Need Revisions

Idea

June 30, 2026 11:15 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMMulti-Industry | North America Christopher Snyder, CFA

Equity Analyst

CoTD: Sustained Cycle Chris.Snyder@morganstanley.comBrandon Knutson +1 212 761-4470

Brandon.Knutson@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-4168

Momentum But Equities Need Toby Okwara

Toby.Okwara@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-1693

Revisions Christine Yao

Research Associate

Christine.Yao@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-4193

Chart of the Day (CoTD) highlights charts that tie into latest

Multi-Industry

investor conversations, are timely for the macro + company North America

events, or just ones that we find interesting. Industry View Attractive

Exhibit 1: We view weekly US Commercial & Industrial lending as a real-time

gauge of Industrial activity and the data signals continued strength through June

Source: Morgan Stanley, Visible Alpha, US Census Bureau

The same indicators that caused us to turn positive on US Industrial short-cycle

in our 2026 outlook (Layering in Cyclical Torque) suggest momentum will be

sustained into 2H – but US Industrials are now trading at a historic premium vs the

broader market and now reflecting our call for a return to "Decade High Industrial

Growth" which suggests forward revisions are needed to drive further upside for

the equities. The reason to remain constructive is that positive forward revisions

are coming, albeit with bifurcation across our US multi-industry coverage. US

Industrials showed a sharp turn in cyclical momentum during Q1 and leading

edge data points suggest the turn is being sustained through Q2. To this point,

US Commercial & Industrial weekly lending data has remained firm through June –