JPM EM Corporate Strategy Daily

Research evidence excerpt

JPM EM Corporate Strategy Daily

J P M O R G A N Global Credit Research

30 June 2026

The CEMBI sector performance broadly matches the earnings growth Emerging Markets Corporate

expectations for this year, mostly led by the cyclical sectors of industrials and Strategy

commodities. The overall revenue (+15%) and EBITDA (+31%) growth numbers Yang-Myung Hong AC

are significantly higher than the low-single-digit levels in recent years, but such (1-212) 834-4274

strong growth is driven by a few sectors rather than being broad based. The highest ym.hong@jpmorgan.com

EBITDA growth is expected in industrial (+91%), metals & mining (+43%), and J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

oil & gas (+24%), while most of the other major sectors are in the high single digits. Alisa Meyers

That said, these sectors are also among the larger ones in terms of CEMBI BD (1-212) 834-9151

alisa.meyers@jpmorgan.com

weight. Excluding industrials, the overall EBITDA growth gets moderated down J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

to +18%. Although the industrial sector is set to deliver close to a doubling in Dhawal U Mehta

EBITDA, this is being led by a narrow set of large companies in tech manufacturing (91-22) 6157 3779

that are benefiting from the AI capex. In addition, petrochemical companies are dhawal.mehta@jpmchase.com

also experiencing a huge improvement in earnings thanks to the Middle East J.P. Morgan India Private Limited

conflict, albeit at a much smaller scale than the tech manufacturing segment. The

skew toward larger companies is evident in the median EBITDA growth being

significantly lower at +15%.

Elevated expectations for the commodity sectors are mainly driven by

pricing, with metals & mining supported by copper and precious metals. Despite