JPM TECH SKETCH: Why Internet Stocks Can’t Work, UBER-Waymo PHX Partnership Kaput, CMCSA Spin: Right Move, Surprising Timing

Research evidence excerpt

JPM TECH SKETCH: Why Internet Stocks Can’t Work, UBER-Waymo PHX Partnership Kaput, CMCSA Spin: Right Move, Surprising Timing

• SPOT: Despite providing investors with nearly everything they wanted, Spotify hasn’t worked since the May Investor Day

because feedback from the labels has been that the AI Product Tier isn’t yet ready for primetime. It will take all three

major labels to sign on, not to mention a majority of artists, in order for the product to launch with any type of product-market

fit. Initially, the Bullish view was that this could occur by year end, but increasingly this feels like a 2027 story at best. Until

investors obtain clarity on where the new AI products are going, the stock can’t work.

• CVNA: Carvana has been a frustrating stock for Internet investors this year despite the company demonstrating consistent

~40% unit growth. The stock ‘can’t work’ because it’s crowded and there’s always a looming US consumer-led slowdown just

around the corner…

• UBER: The AV overhang, as exemplified by GOOGL’s Waymo, means that UBER can’t work. Every Internet investor by

now has ridden in a Waymo and sees how well the technology works in dense urban environments like SF. Waymo’s only real

limitation at this point is the company’s willingness to expand its fleet – but it’s coming. In particular, 50K Hyundais are

coming over the next 2.5 years and that will potentially blunt UBER’s US Mobility growth. As such, UBER ‘can’t work’

until one of their AV partners (Nuro, Wayve, Moove, Zoox, VW-MBLY, etc.) pulls US-based safety drivers from their

cars at a scale currently beyond TSLA. Check out Doug’s latest: UBER/GOOGL AV Roadmap Update.

• DASH: DoorDash can’t work because the stock requires upward Adj. EBITDA revisions to justify its premium multiple – and