Latin America Economics & Strategy Daily: Brazil Outlook, Copom Preview, Peru Election, Banxico Data-Dependency

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Latin America Economics & Strategy Daily: Brazil Outlook, Copom Preview, Peru Election, Banxico Data-Dependency

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30 Jun 2026 09:00:32 ET │ 20 pages

Latin America Economics & Strategy

Daily

Brazil Outlook, Copom Preview, Peru Election, Banxico Data-

Dependency Ernesto Revilla AC

+1-212-816-2621

ernesto.revilla@citi.com

CITI'S TAKE

Luis E Costa, CFA AC

Today we discuss developments in Brazil, Mexico, Colombia, Peru, +44-20-7986-9757

Argentina, Dominican Republic and El Salvador. luis.costa@citi.com

Regional Macro — Today Banrep is expected to deliver a 50bps hike, bringing the Esteban Tamayo AC

policy rate to 11.75%. BCRD is also hosting its June policy meeting today. Official esteban.tamayo@citi.com

results in Peru confirm Fujimori winning the second round of presidential elections AC Leonardo Portoby a small margin, obtaining 50.14% of the vote (Bloomberg, June 29th). On the

global front, today investors will focus on scheduled peace talks between the US and leonardo.porto@citi.com

Iran, while flows through the SoH seem to have accelerated (Bloomberg, June 30th). AC Paulo Lopes

LatAm Strategy Trades — We went long BRL against EUR and AUD as the current paulo.lopes@citi.com

macroeconomic backdrop still suggests resilience for high real-yielding EM (link). AC Thais Ortega

We are holding on to our vol adjusted (structurally long USD) long MXN, BRL and

thais.ortega@citi.comTRY vs CAD, CHF and THB, to capture high yielders carry (link).

Felipe Juncal AC

Brazil — Interest Rate ‘Calibration Cycle’ Is Likely Done. Fiscal data comes in line

felipe.juncal@citi.comwith expectations in May-26.

Donato Guarino AC

Mexico — Banxico is adopting a data-dependent pause in its monetary policy cycle,

donato.guarino@citi.comwith no predefined timeline for future rate moves.