ABB Early look at Q2’26: Expect another strong El orders quarter

Research evidence excerpt

ABB Early look at Q2’26: Expect another strong El orders quarter

Phil Buller AC Europe Equity Research

(44-20) 3493-9403 30 June 2026 J P M O R G A N

phil.buller@jpmorgan.com

Price Performance Summary Investment Thesis and Valuation

Investment Thesis

• Stronger growth outlook today vs history. The group is

positioned to be a beneficiary of a number of the structural

growth drivers we identify at the sector level.

• Portfolio actions and self-help largely complete. The

multi-year self-help efforts have unequivocally resulted in a

higher quality business today. We are now concerned about

the prospect of larger scale M&A which is the primary item

which keeps us neutral-rated on the shares in the context of

current valuation.

YTD 1m 3m 12m

Abs 44.3% 2.2% 35.3% 78.8% • Competition for capital in the electricals space – we see Rel 36.9% 2.9% 22.9% 65.4%

more upside elsewhere. The relative attractiveness of the

Company Data electricals space and the improved quality not just of ABB

Shares O/S (mn) 1,827 but also peers, both in Europe and the US, makes this a

52-week range (CHF) 89.14-46.52 competitive space for shareholder capital.

Market cap ($ mn) 193,263.50

Exchange rate 0.81 Valuation

Free float (%) 85.4%

3M ADV (mn) 2.44 • Our December 2027 PT is based on a reverse DCF valuation.

3M ADV ($ mn) 239.6 The target multiple is 21x EV/adj. EBITA applied to our

Volatility (90 Day) 32

Index SXNP Index 2028 forecasts.

BBG ANR (Buy | Hold | Sell) 13|25|2

Key Metrics (FYE Dec)

$ in millions FY25A FY26E FY27E FY28E

Financial Estimates

Revenue 33,220 36,779 38,986 41,294

Adj. EBITDA 7,312 8,779 9,085 9,837

Adj. EBIT 6,129 7,508 7,869 8,566

Adj. net income 4,501 5,566 5,700 6,286

Adj. EPS 2.46 3.10 3.20 3.53

BBG EPS 2.55 3.36 3.47 3.90

Cashflow from operations 5,469 5,093 5,316 6,749