Ryanair: Checking-in for Q1 earnings

Research evidence excerpt

Ryanair: Checking-in for Q1 earnings

J P M O R G A N Europe Equity Research

30 June 2026

Ryanair Overweight

RYA.I, RYA ID

Checking-in for Q1 earnings Price (29 Jun 26):€27.13

Price Target (Dec-27):€33.00

We provide a preview ahead of Q1 earnings (20th July). We forecast Q1 net income European Transport & Logistics

ACat €569m, 7% below Bloomberg consensus €613m, and below prior year €820m Harry J Gowers

due to higher costs and lower fares. However, our Mar-27 net income estimate (44-20) 7134-7522

increases by 12%, mainly due to the impact from lower spot/forward jet fuel prices, harry.gowers@jpmorgan.com

and we now forecast Mar-27 net income at €2.06bn, which is c4% above J.P. Morgan Securities plc

Bloomberg consensus. Our Mar-28/29 estimates are broadly unchanged. In our Alexia Dogani

view, most of the focus will be around pricing and if Ryanair has seen any (44-20) 3493-3791

alexia.dogani@jpmorgan.com

acceleration in short-haul demand post a resolution in the Middle East and better J.P. Morgan Securities plc

sentiment on jet fuel availability. Previously, the LCCs have struggled to pass-

Bhavpreet S Batra

through higher fuel via pricing and have seen incremental bookings weakness (91-22) 6157-5046

versus pre-conflict. We model Q1 fares -4% (versus down MSD % guidance) and bhavpreet.batra@jpmorgan.com

Q2 fares broadly flat at +0.5% (which is unchanged and broadly in line with prior J.P. Morgan India Private Limited

commentary). So far, in our view, it appears that LCC bookings sentiment has Shikha Khurana

improved somewhat into peak summer, but we haven't seen any material (91-22) 6157-5022

acceleration in pricing trends. We would note recent comments from MOL that shikha.khurana@jpmchase.com