AeroVironment: Good Q4 Helping to Re-establish Confidence

Research evidence excerpt

AeroVironment: Good Q4 Helping to Re-establish Confidence

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

30 June 2026

AeroVironment Overweight

AVAV, AVAV US

Good Q4 Helping to Re-establish Confidence Price (29 Jun 26):$139.00

▼Price Target (Dec-26):$200.00

Prior (Dec-26):$245.00

AV reported a quarter that came in ahead of expectations on sales, driven by AxS.

The business remains lumpy quarter to quarter, but cUAS and Uncrewed Systems Aerospace & Defense

continue to perform well, with FY27 growth expected to be quite strong, when Seth M. Seifman, CFA AC

netting our temporary headwinds. AV has multiple growth opportunities across (1-212) 622-5597

drones, loitering munitions, various cUAS systems, including lasers, and optical seth.m.seifman@jpmorgan.com

communications terminals. Mgmt is investing to develop these products further Rocco J Barbero

and build scale, with future performance dependent on execution in what should (1-212) 622-8140

rocco.j.barbero@jpmorgan.com

be a strong funding environment. We are reducing our Dec-26 price target to $200

Alexander Ladd

(from $245) to account for lower valuations across the space. This is based on 4.5x

(1-212) 622-0077

our CY27E sales of $2.4b and ~28x CY27E adj EBITDA. AV will host an investor alex.ladd@jpmorgan.com

meeting on July 8. J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

• Underlying sales growth better than the headline. We are modeling

$2,175m of sales in FY27, the midpoint of the guide. This would represent Key Changes (FYE Apr)

reported growth of 10%, but there are a few adjustments to consider in Prev Cur Δ

assessing underlying growth. First, we estimate that the recently closed ES Adj. EPS - 27E ($) 3.64 3.20 -12.2%

Aero acquisition adds ~400 bps, taking organic growth to ~6%. Conversely, the Adj. EPS - 28E ($) 4.81 3.75 -22.0%