Washington Policy Perspectives: US exceptionalism is back but with fatter tails, thinner patience

Research evidence excerpt

Washington Policy Perspectives: US exceptionalism is back but with fatter tails, thinner patience

J P M O R G A N Strategic Research

30 June 2026

Washington Policy Perspectives

US exceptionalism is back but with fatter tails, thinner

patience

Top 10 takeaways from Washington, DC Chair of Global Research

1. US financial exceptionalism remains intact, outweighing fallout from Joyce Chang AC

Iran conflict. AI-led capex, easy financial conditions, and a deregulatory (1-212) 834-4203

impulse point to upside growth risk, despite Iran shock. joyce.chang@jpmorgan.com

Strategic Research

2. Higher macro and market regime being normalized. Structurally firmer AC Amy Ho

inflation, higher term premium and outsized daily market moves are

(1-212) 270 0331

increasingly treated as “the new normal” with fiscal and debt concerns still amy.ho@jpmchase.com

notably underweighted in market pricing. AC Mohammed Hossain

3. Consensus but wide range of views on timing and magnitude of Fed hikes. (1-212) 622-1619

Skepticism is high on lowering inflation, with Warsh taking an absolutist mohammed.z.hossain@jpmchase.com

posture on eliminating forward guidance with open questions on what task Zahin Ov AC

forces will achieve. (1-212) 622 0020

zahin.ov@jpmchase.com

4. Dollar debasement trade is off the immediate radar. Strong demand for Global FX Strategy

USD financial assets outpaces de-dollarization concerns; with rates repricing, AC Patrick R Locke

there is less urgency to increase gold allocations at the margin. (1-212) 834-4254

5. The politics of AI have arrived as the next fault line. Backlash risks are patrick.r.locke@jpmchase.com

building around income inequality, datacenter sites, and regulatory authority J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

and jurisdiction.

6.