Commodity Market Positioning & Flows: Race to the bottom

Research evidence excerpt

Commodity Market Positioning & Flows: Race to the bottom

J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy

30 June 2026

Commodity Market Positioning &

Flows

Race to the bottom

• The estimated value of open interest across tracked commodity markets Global Commodities Research

decreased by 4% WoW (-$67 billion) to $1.7 trillion as of June 26 (Table 2Theestimatedvalueofcomoditymarketopeninterestacrosmajorglobalexchangesreached$1.6trilioninthewekending26June, Otar Dgebuadze, CFA

Figure 2Theestimatedvalueofglobalcomoditymarketopeninterestdecreasedby4%WoW). The decline was largely concentrated in crude oil (-$26 billion WoW), (44-20) 3493-8246

copper (-$13 billion WoW), and grains & oilseeds markets (-$12 billion WoW), otar.dgebuadze@jpmorgan.com

as prices declined across crude oil, copper, and aluminum markets, with J.P. Morgan Securities plc

additional pressure from net contract-based outflows in copper and grains & Natasha Kaneva

oilseeds. On the macro front, our economists note that energy-price tail risks (1-212) 834-3175

natasha.kaneva@jpmorgan.com

have eased after the Strait reopening agreement. However, the earlier energy JPMorgan Chase Bank NA

shock is still weighing on households through weaker purchasing power and

Gregory C. Shearer

slower spending, though our economists see ample cushions to sustain growth (44-20) 7134-8161

momentum. Tech capex is still seen as robust, which should boost productivity gregory.c.shearer@jpmorgan.com

growth and strengthen demand, while normalizing business sentiment should J.P. Morgan Securities plc

boost labour demand, driving a strong and balanced global growth outlook Tracey Allen

(Global Data Watch: While chasin’ the clouds away, Kasman et al, 26 June (44-20) 7134-6732

2026). tracey.l.allen@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities plc