US: Consumer confidence flashes a warning on unemployment

Research evidence excerpt

US: Consumer confidence flashes a warning on unemployment

J P M O R G A N North America Economic Research

30 June 2026

US: Consumer confidence flashes

a warning on unemployment

The labor market message from the June consumer confidence survey and May Economic and Policy Research

JOLTS sent conflicting messages, with consumer confidence suggesting that Abiel Reinhart

unemployment may yet rise further while the JOLTS managed to hold onto the (1-617) 712 9122

spike in job openings from the prior month. The consumer confidence report in abiel.reinhart@jpmchase.com

particular is a reminder that amidst a notable improvement in a range of labor JPMorgan Chase Bank NA

indicators, including payroll growth and jobless claims, there continues to be

ongoing deterioration in some measures that have historically been correlated with

the unemployment rate.

Consumer confidence

The consumer confidence edged up from 90.6 in May to 91.2 in April, as rising

expectations more than offset a drop in current conditions. Confidence got a lift

from falling gas prices and inflation expectations edged down, while buying

conditions for big-ticket items improved. But the concerning signal here was in the

labor market differential—the share of respondents who say jobs are plentiful less

the share who say they are hard to get. The May number was revised from 6.9%

to 5.0%, and it then dropped further to a new cycle low of 2.4% in June.

Unemployment rate and Conference Board labor market differential Conference Board plans to buy within six months

%, sa Net %, sa; inverted Percent, sa, both scales

Unemployment rate House Car

10 -60 7.5 14

-40 7.0 13 8

-20 6.5

6 0 6.0

20 5.5

4 Labor market differential (share of 40 5.0 10 jobs plentiful less hard-to-get)

2 60 4.5 9