Curveball: HG Credit Curve Opportunities: 5s10s spread curve at steepest level in over a year as investors rotate into front-end

Research evidence excerpt

Curveball: HG Credit Curve Opportunities: 5s10s spread curve at steepest level in over a year as investors rotate into front-end

J P M O R G A N North America Credit Research

30 June 2026

Curveball: HG Credit Curve

Opportunities

5s10s spread curve at steepest level in over a year as

investors rotate into front-end

• The HG spread curve steepened in the belly and long-end last week as JULI North America Corporate Credit -

spreads widened by 2bp to 89bp. The 5s10s curve steepened to 27bp on Friday, Investment Grade Strategy

its steepest level since mid-May 2025, and is now at 26bp. The curve has Silvi Mantri AC

steepened a sharp 4bp MoM as investors rotate into the front-end. This (1-212) 834-7239

dynamic is showing up in 5-10yr dealer inventories too, which we estimate are silvi.mantri@jpmchase.com

close to a 4yr high (though our estimate tends to move more than the subsequent Nathaniel Rosenbaum, CFA

FRBNY statistics). The 10s30s curve also steepened by 1bp to 18bp, its (1-212) 834-2370

steepest level in a month and is at 39% of its 6m range. The 3s5s curve was nathaniel.rosenbaum@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

about unchanged at 16bp, or at 78% of its 6m range. 2yr UST yields declined

12bp, partially reversing the prior week’s rise, with the 2s30s UST curve

steepening 4bp WoW.

• The 3s5s curve flattened by 0.1bp WoW while it steepened by 0.5bp MoM to

15.7bp. The 3s5s issuer curves for F (9bp WoW) and STOR (9bp WoW)

steepened the most, while CAT (-8bp WoW) and INTC (-7bp WoW) flattened

the most WoW. Currently, CEG (10bp, 90%) and FDXF (23bp, 87%) are at the

steepest level while NTRCN (18bp, 0%) and CAT (12bp, 4%) are at the flattest

level in their 6m range.

• The 5s10s curve steepened by 0.4bp WoW and by 4.0bp MoM to 26.1bp.The