Thailand: Investment-led growth gains momentum in May

Research evidence excerpt

Thailand: Investment-led growth gains momentum in May

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Economic Research

01 July 2026

Thailand: Investment-led growth

gains momentum in May

We raise our 2026 GDP growth forecast to 2.8% and

expect a current account deficit at 2.2% of GDP

• Private sector spending improved in May, led by sustained double-digit growth Emerging Markets Asia, Economic

in private investment, while private consumption growth also rebounded. and Policy Research

• Manufacturing output fell slightly by 0.8%oya in May (April: -0.9%), owing Charnon Boonnuch

to base effects from auto output, which we expect to dissipate in June. (65) 6807 5086

charnon.boonnuch@jpmorgan.com

• The large current account deficit persisted in May at USD6.4bn (April: JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Singapore Branch

USD7.8bn), as falling energy imports were offset by dividend repatriation.

• We raise our 2026 GDP growth forecast substantially to 2.8% from 2.1%,

reflecting the boost from fiscal stimulus and sustained investment growth.

• Owing to stronger domestic demand and energy shocks, we now expect a

current account deficit of 2.2% of GDP in 2026 (Consensus: 1.2% surplus).

Economic resilience amid the energy shock

The Bank of Thailand (BOT) reported that domestic demand “improved slightly”

in May, after the slowdown in April that showed the initial impact of the energy

supply shocks (see Thailand: 2Q26 off to a weak start in April amid oil shock, 1

June 2026). This, in our view, points to some economic resilience even before the

easing of tensions in the Middle East, but is also in line with our view that Thailand

will be less affected by the impact of the energy shocks than most feared.

• Private Investment Index (PII) growth rose further to 14.8% oya in May, from