US MARKET INTELLIGENCE | AFTERNOON BRIEFING

Research evidence excerpt

US MARKET INTELLIGENCE | AFTERNOON BRIEFING

• US MACRO DATA TOMORROW: Challenger Job Cuts at 5:30am ET. Mortgage Applications at

7am ET. ADP Employment Change at 8:15am ET. PMI-Mfg (revision) at 9:45am ET. ISM-Mfg

(New Orders/Employment/Prices Paid), Construction Spending at 10am ET. The required

six-year formal joint review of the USMCA officially.

• US EARNINGS TOMORROW: FDS, GIS

• GLOBAL MACRO DATA TOMORROW: (UK) Nationwide House Price at 2am ET.

(Eurozone) CPI/PPI at 5am ET. (Japan) Monetary Base YoY at 7:50pm ET. (Japan) Foreign

Buying Japan Bonds at 7:50pm ET. (Japan) Foreign Buying Japan Stocks at 7:50pm ET.

JPM MARKET INTEL EQUITY & MACRO NARRATIVE

Market Intelligence will not be publishing July 2 – July 6.

Stocks finished higher today led by Tech. Beyond the index level, price actions were not that supportive,

with nearly 60% of SPX stocks actually finished lower. The most notable price actions was bond yield

today: while upside surprises in JOLTS did fuel some hawkishness, the magnitude of the moves today

suggested that the reversal of recent rebalancing momentum and anticipation of the upcoming NFP

could contribute to these moves as well. Tomorrow, watch for ISM-Mfg, see the preview from Feroli

below.

• JPM ECON ON TODAY’S MACRO DATA (here) – “The labor market message from the June

consumer confidence survey and May JOLTS sent conflicting messages, with consumer

confidence suggesting that unemployment may yet rise further while the JOLTS managed to

hold onto the spike in job openings from the prior month. The consumer confidence report in

particular is a reminder that amidst a notable improvement in a range of labor indicators,

including payroll growth and jobless claims, there continues to be ongoing deterioration in some