US Treasury Market Daily

Research evidence excerpt

US Treasury Market Daily

Jay Barry AC (1-212) 834-4951 Harry Downie (1-212) 270-9500 Global Markets Strategy J P M O R G A N

john.f.barry@jpmorgan.com harry.j.downie@jpmorgan.com US Treasury Market Daily

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC 30 June 2026

Jason Hunter AC (1-212) 270-0034 Liam L Wash (1-212) 834-5230

jason.x.hunter@jpmorgan.com liam.wash@jpmchase.com

Market views

Yields rose 4-5bp across the curve, driven by Iran related headlines and JOLTS data.

Iran’s foreign minister stated that no direct meetings have been scheduled between the

US and Iran in Doha, though indirect meetings will occur with Qatar acting as mediator.

The minister also highlighted a large number of concerns, criticisms, and objections

from Iran about the speed with which the Memorandum of Understanding has been

implemented. Additionally, the Iranian Speaker of Parliament later highlighted that the

toll-free passage would be limited to 60 days. Turning to domestic data, the May JOLTS

continued to show a low hire, low fire economy: the layoff rate remained low at 1.1%,

and the hire rate was 3.3%, in line with its 12-month average. However, the Conference

Board’s labor market differential has deteriorated, which has historically signaled a

rising unemployment rate. Notably, continuing jobless claims, another leading indicator

of unemployment, has provided a more upbeat message (see US: Consumer confidence

flashes a warning on unemployment, Abiel Reinhart, 06/30/26).

Looking ahead to tomorrow, we expect the ISM Manufacturing for June to uptick to

55.0 (consensus 53.8), which would represent its highest level since June of 2022. Part

of the strength in the ISM reflects front-loading behavior ahead of the rising inflationary

pressures and supply chain issues from the Middle East conflict.