Daily Economic Briefing: US consumers remain downbeat on job prospects

Research evidence excerpt

Daily Economic Briefing: US consumers remain downbeat on job prospects

J P M O R G A N Global Economic Research

30 June 2026

Daily Economic Briefing

US consumers remain downbeat on job prospects

• We believe US labor demand is picking up and the June employment report, Economic and Policy Research

due Thursday, is expected to show payrolls rising 125k. If realized without Alex Gallin

revisions, US job growth will have averaged 159k over the past three months (1-212) 270-5492

and 116k over the first six months of this year. There are a number of other alex.gallin@jpmorgan.com

indicators pointing to a pickup in job growth, including the Fed regional JPMorgan Chase Bank NA

surveys of hiring intentions. Today's May JOLTS release was also relatively Maia Crook

upbeat. After stepping higher last month, the job opening rate held at 4.6%, its (1-212) 622-8435

maia.crook@jpmorgan.com

highest level since November 2024. The stable but low hiring and quits rates JPMorgan Chase Bank NA

in this report continue to point to a labor market with low churn.

Nora Szentivanyi

• Consumers’ attitudes around the labor market remain downbeat, as shown in (44-20) 7134-7544

the latest Conference Board consumer confidence report. While overall nora.szentivanyi@jpmorgan.com

confidence rose 0.6pt to 91.2 in June, the labor market differential—the share J.P. Morgan Securities plc

of respondents who say jobs are plentiful less the share who say they are hard Joseph Lupton

to get—continued to decline, hitting a new cycle low of 2.4% in June. This (1-212) 834-5735

joseph.p.lupton@jpmorgan.com

reading, in contrast to our forecast for a stable 4.3% unemployment rate in the JPMorgan Chase Bank NA

June report, would be consistent with a rise.

US labor market sentiment, businesses vs. consumers