Colombia: BanRep resumes tightening with hawkish 75bp move

Research evidence excerpt

Colombia: BanRep resumes tightening with hawkish 75bp move

J P M O R G A N Latin America Economic Research

30 June 2026

Colombia

BanRep resumes tightening with hawkish 75bp move

Following the “April accord” and the end of the political cycle, BanRep resumed Economic and Policy Research

its tightening cycle with a 75bp hike, taking the policy rate to 12%. As expected, Diego W. Pereira

the decision was split: four board members backed the 75bp increase, two (1-212) 834-4321

supported a 50bp easing, and one preferred to hold. We had anticipated a 50bp hike, diego.w.pereira@jpmorgan.com

but the Board ultimately proved more hawkish than expected. J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

Juan Goldin

In its statement, the Board noted that inflation continues to trend higher, with (57 601) 869 8746

juan.goldin@jpmchase.com

headline inflation reaching 5.8%oya in May and core inflation (excluding food and BANCO J.P. MORGAN COLOMBIA S.A

regulated items) rising to 6.0%oya, further diverging from target. This trajectory

had already been flagged in the previous monetary policy report.

On inflation expectations, the statement struck an unusual tone. It noted that

through May, both survey-based expectations and those implied by the public debt

market had risen across maturities. However, in June, the latter partially reversed.

This shift was linked to the outcome of the first round of the presidential election,

which compressed risk premia—a move later reinforced following the runoff.

Even so, the majority appears to be seeking further consolidation in both risk

premia and inflation expectations beyond what has already materialized, likely

tipping the balance toward a 75bp hike rather than a more gradual 50bp step.

On activity, the Board highlighted that domestic demand continues to outpace