Holcim Ltd: Expect 9% LFL EBIT growth for Q2-2026E; FY expectations remain easily achievable

Research evidence excerpt

Holcim Ltd: Expect 9% LFL EBIT growth for Q2-2026E; FY expectations remain easily achievable

Elodie Rall AC Europe Equity Research

(44-20) 7134-5911 01 July 2026 J P M O R G A N

elodie.rall@jpmorgan.com

Investment Thesis, Valuation and Risks

Holcim Ltd (Overweight; Price Target: CHF84.00)

Investment Thesis

We are OW Holcim. The shares remain our preferred pick compared to other Swiss names,

Geberit and Sika, and is on an 34% discount to these names on EV/EBITDA. Furthermore,

whilst the shares are on a premium to Heidelberg (likely due to the Swiss premium), we see

Holcim as another way to play the theme of improving industry fundamentals in European

Cement. Furthermore, looking ahead to 2026, we see the sector benefiting from positive

price increases given regulatory catalysts (i.e, CBAM enactment and EU ETS Benchmark

revision). Holcim also has decent sales exposure to Germany and thus (similar to

Heidelberg) should benefit from increased fiscal spending in the region. We also see strong

earnings momentum in 2026E.

Valuation

We derive our PT from an EV/EBITDA-based valuation methodology with EV calculation.

Our PT is derived by applying our revised target EV/EBITDA multiple of 12x to our

adjusted 2027 EBITDA estimates to get to our PT. This multiple is a premium to its history,

which we think is warranted given improved fundamentals and pricing power. Definition

of enterprise value: we use the following formula to calculate EV: (Current Market

Capitalisation) + (Net Debt) + (Market value of minorities) + (Other EV includes the

following: 1) unfunded pension liabilities; 2) provisions for fines, etc.

Risks to Rating and Price Target

Key risks are related to the group’s macroeconomic exposure as well as to cost inflation

headwinds.