Grocery macro indicators: Reflation trade looming, but not yet evident - especially in Poland

Research evidence excerpt

Grocery macro indicators: Reflation trade looming, but not yet evident - especially in Poland

J P M O R G A N Europe Equity Research

01 July 2026

Grocery macro indicators

Reflation trade looming, but not yet evident - especially

in Poland

Why is this publication important? In this note, we: 1) provide an update on the key European Food Retail

ACgrocery macro indicators per market (food CPI & PPI, food retail sales in nominal Borja Olcese

and real terms, etc.); 2) evaluate food CPI and food PPI sub-categories to (34-91) 516-1511

benchmark the grocers under our coverage by exposure; 3) provide industry borja.olcese@jpmorgan.com

growth rates (such as Numerator, Circana data), along with our estimates on LFLs J.P. Morgan Securities plc

and margin outlook for the grocers in their respective core markets, to ultimately Palak Garg

assess the read-across for the stocks vis-a-vis current market expectations. (91-22) 6157-5102

palak.x2.garg@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan India Private Limited

Main takeaways: 1) The US & Poland are becoming notably pressured, whilst

the UK remains far better than France & Belgium; 2) The -ve PPI is dragging Specialist Sales contact details:

down the basket inflation and the market reads that from a more competitive Olivia Petronilho - Specialist Sales -

standpoint than is the case; 3) Volume trends underpin juxtaposed strategies European Consumer

at Jeronimo and the UK Grocers (investing in price to underpin (44-20) 3493-3709

competitiveness) vs Ahold-Delhaize/Carrefour (margin preservation). Our olivia.b.petronilho@jpmorgan.com

current sector stance is clear in this regard - we rate JMT, TSCO, SBRY (and

GRG) at OW vs AD, CA, COLR, BME (and DOM) as UW.

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