Digital Asset Take: Forecast update: Flows: from slow to no-show

Research evidence excerpt

Digital Asset Take: Forecast update: Flows: from slow to no-show

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30 Jun 2026 20:56:40 ET │ 14 pages

Digital Asset Take

Forecast update: Flows: from slow to no-show

CITI'S TAKE

Alex Saunders AC

Bitcoin and Ethereum remain below key technical levels. Slow US legislative +1-212-723-1058

progress and concerns around digital asset treasury (DAT) selling have alexander.saunders@citi.com

weighed on sentiment. This is reflected in a lack of investor risk appetite,

and ETF flows, an important driver of prices, have turned negative recently. With thanks to

The absence of a catalyst for increased investor interest means we reduce Irem Sen

our base-case flow expectations to zero over the next 12m. This reduces our

forecasts for BTC and ETH to $82k (from $112k) and $2,240 (from $3,175),

respectively. Weak ETF demand is the most important delta to the forecast

change. Our US equity strategist’s higher year-end equity view bolsters

targets. The bear case, premised on recessionary macro factors and ETF

outflows continuing, sees targets of $53k and $1,094, respectively. The bull

case anticipates greater end-investor demand. ETH will be especially

sensitive to user activity metrics, which have been weak with developments

off-ETH-network recently.

Bitcoin and Ether forecasts; a lack of catalysts — Sluggish progress on US

legislation and negative sentiment has led to ETF outflows recently. Our March 12m

forecasts were predicated on the passage of a digital market-structure bill

galvanizing investor interest. The path to passage this year has narrowed further and

we now assume no net ETF flows. Token prices are trading below values based on

user activity, but flows have turned negative. This is the biggest factor in our reduced

forecasts.