Matsuzawa Morning Report

Research evidence excerpt

Matsuzawa Morning Report

Global Markets Research

29 June 2026Matsuzawa Morning Report

Macro Strategy - Japan

Research Analysts

US tech stocks fall despite lower oil prices and US yields Strategy

Naka Matsuzawa - NSC

Japanese government falls behind the curve naka.matsuzawa@nomura.com

+81 3 6703 3864

-UStechstocksremainweakdespitetailwindsfromloweroilpricesandUSyields.

-TailwindsfromcheaperoilandlowerUSyieldslikelytofade,raisingtheriskofadeeper

correctioninUStechstocks.

-JPYcontinuestoweakendespitetailwindsfromloweroilpricesandrisk-offflows.

-AslongastheTakaichiadministrationremainsbehindthecurve,theMOFmayhesitate

tointerveneintheFXmarket.

Today's Japanese market

In Japanese markets on Monday, this author expects upside to be limited for both bonds

and equities (in overnight futures trading, bonds were down 24 sen and equities were flat

at +/- JPY0 over OSE). In overseas markets last Friday, US tech stocks were unable to

rebound, despite a boost from lower oil prices and US yields. At the same time, other risk

assets rose, so momentum was not risk-off overall. Volatility fell in all three markets. In the

US bond market, rate hike expectations continued to fall and the short and intermediate

zones led a decline in yields. Inflation expectations also fell in response to lower oil prices.

In the US stock market, cyclicals such as tech (semiconductors), banks, capital goods,

and consumer spending-related names were weak across the board, but software stocks

made the strongest gains, indicating that sector rotation is also active. In the FX market,

USD softened as oil prices fell, but was bought back as the US stock market lost traction.

JPY, lacking agency, was stuck in the 161.5-162.0 range against USD and was mixed

against cross currencies.