Asia Insights: China monthly: June and Q2 data preview

Research evidence excerpt

Asia Insights: China monthly: June and Q2 data preview

Global Markets Research

29 June 2026Asia Insights

Economics - Asia ex-Japan

Research Analysts

China monthly: June and Q2 data preview Asia Economics

Jing Wang - NIHK

Growth across major activity data slowed materially in April and May, confirming our view jing.wang@nomura.com

that the growth rebound in Q1 was short-lived, and we expect no major rebound in June. +852 2252 1011

The export surge was largely fueled by a spike in chip prices amid the AI supercycle, Harrington Zhang - NIHK

which failed to provide a meaningful boost to real industrial production, while the Middle harrington.zhang@nomura.com

East conflict has severely disrupted factory operations across oil and chemical sectors. +852 2252 2057

Growth of retail sales and fixed asset investment have turned negative again, as Hannah Liu - NIHK

aggregate domestic demand is being weighed on by payback effects from the trade-in hannah.liu@nomura.com

program, the prolonged property slump and a worsening of the doubleK-shapes. Based +852 2252 1082

on an examination of both supply- and demand-side indicators, we maintain our forecast Ting Lu - NIHK

for real GDP growth to slow to 4.1% y-o-y in Q2 from 5.0% in Q1. With the renewed sharp ting.lu@nomura.com

declines in investment against Beijing’s commitment to stabilize investment, we believe +852 2252 1306

Beijing will likely accelerate bond issuance and step up fiscal spending in coming months.

Both supply- and demand-side indicators point to weaker growth in Q2

We evaluate Q2 GDP growth by analyzing supply- and demand-side indicators for April-

May alongside our projections for June. We maintain our forecast for a marked slowdown

in real GDP growth to 4.1% y-o-y in Q2 from 5.0% in Q1, while nominal GDP growth might