Steel: Trade statistics (May 2026): EQUITY: JAPAN STEEL, NONFERROUS METALS, WIRE & CABLE

Research evidence excerpt

Steel: Trade statistics (May 2026): EQUITY: JAPAN STEEL, NONFERROUS METALS, WIRE & CABLE

Nomura | Steel: Trade statistics (May 2026) 29 June 2026

May export volumes: We estimate y-y declines at Nippon Steel and JFE Holdings

Figure9, Figure10, Figure11, and Figure12 show export prices from the ports near the

two aforementioned companies' main production sites, while Figure13 shows the

difference between export prices at Nippon Steel and JFE Holdings. We estimate that

export volumes in May were down 4% y-y at Nippon Steel and down 10% at JFE

Holdings.

We expect Nippon Steel and JFE Holdings' export prices in Apr–Jun to be not that

different from the previous quarter

Since Asian steel product prices, a leading indicator of Japanese export prices, have not

changed appreciably, we estimate that export prices in Apr–Jun were flat q-q at Nippon

Steel and up $15/t (around 2%) at JFE Holdings. If June export volumes were to be in line

with the Apr–May average, this would put Apr–Jun export volumes down 1% q-q at

Nippon Steel and up 4% at JFE Holdings. Our earnings forecasts for Nippon Steel

assume a $5/t (1%) q-q rise in export prices and a 4% decline in export volumes in Apr–

Jun. Export prices could end up being slightly lower than we have assumed in our

forecasts, but it looks like export volumes will end up being higher that we have assumed,

so as a whole we expect export earnings to be in line with our forecast.

Tokyo Steel Mfg: Exports from Tahara works entirely to Western Europe, broadly

tracking our forecast

Hot-rolled coil export volumes from the Port of Mikawa (Aichi Prefecture), which is near

Tokyo Steel Mfg's [5423] (Neutral) Tahara Works, totaled around 20,000t (down 13% y-y,

down 20% m-m) in May (Figure17). All of these exports were to Western Europe. We