JPY Intraday Comment

Research evidence excerpt

JPY Intraday Comment

Global Markets Research

29 June 2026JPY Intraday Comment

Foreign Exchange - Global

Research Analysts

Under pressure Global FX Strategy

Yujiro Goto - NSC

Megabanks are likely struggling to source USD for the US-Japan yujiro.goto@nomura.com

investment scheme, but spot FX-driven funding still looks very unlikely +81 3 6703 1120

Yusuke Miyairi, CFA - NIplc

• The Takaichi administration's pressure on the BOJ appears to be weighing on the yen, yusuke.miyairi@nomura.com

while driving JGB curve twist steepening. Sato, another reflationist appointee, is +44 (0) 20 7102 4145

expected to give her inaugural press conference tomorrow as she joins the BOJ

Tomoki Hideshima - NSC board. tomoki.hideshima@nomura.com

• Megabanks seem to be struggling to fund their share of the $550bn US investment +81 3 6703 1427

commitment (source: Nikkei). Our base case is that most funding will be sourced via Yuki Kodera - NSC

FX swaps and USD-debt issuance, and won’t spillover in to the FX spot market. yuki.kodera@nomura.com

+81 3 6703 1281

• The MOF decided not to adjust its JGB issuance maturity mix this fiscal year, per last

Friday's Primary Dealers' meeting. This leaves 10-year JGB yields mainly driven by

BOJ rate hike and inflation expectations.

Fig. 1: BOJ’s policy board members Fig. 2: Japan-US strategic investments and JBIC, NEXI

Source: MOF, Nomura

Note: Nakagawa’s term ended on 29 June, and she will be replaced by Sato from 30

June.

Source: BOJ, Nomura

Takaichi administration’s pressure on the BOJ appears to be weighing on the JPY,

while leading to JGB curve twist steepening

The yen is having a soft start to the week, underperforming against all other major

currencies today. USD/JPY is just shy of its multi-year recent intraday high (161.95 in July

2024).