Solvay - Key Themes Ahead of 2Q26 Results

Research evidence excerpt

Solvay - Key Themes Ahead of 2Q26 Results

NSTEIN FLASHMAIL

29 June 2026

James Hooper

+44 20 7676 6995

European Chemicals james.hooper@bernsteinsg.com

Solvay SA Sebastien Afoy

+44 207 762 1032

Rating sebastien.afoy@bernsteinsg.com

Market-Perform Specialist Sales

Price Target James Brady

+44 20 7762 5272

SOLB.BB 26.60 EUR james.brady@bernsteinsg.com

We regularly hold calls with companies, making sure we are up-to-date with their latest communications. We recently caught up with

Solvay in the lead up to their 2Q26 reporting, and provide an update of the key themes below.

The messaging around Q2 remained broadly similar compared to our Nice conference (see Solvay: Nice conference - Still

navigating a low visibility environment). As a result, the overall effect from Iran is still expected to be slightly negative. The company

continues to expect Coatis to benefit from lower import volumes from China in Brazil, along with reduced US tariff pressure. However,

peroxides remains impacted by the mid-March shutdown at the Saudi Hydrogen Peroxide Company (the Solvay–Sadara JV). For

Soda Ash, visibility remains limited amid ongoing pricing pressure, and the company sees no positive effect yet from the California

plant shutdown. After some maintenance earlier into quarter, a fuller impact of a recovery in Coatis is still anticipated to materialise

in the second half of 2026. In this context, we see Bloomberg consensus 2Q26 EBITDA of €175m (~flat QoQ excluding the litigation

settlement and the sale of carbon ETS during Q1 amounting to c.€45m) as a more likely result than the €185m Vara consensus, with

possibly some slight downside to the Bloomberg consensus.

For the rest of the year, underlying improvements are required in 2H26 to meet EBITDA. Based on the above, some 2H26