US Treasury Market Daily

Research evidence excerpt

US Treasury Market Daily

Jay Barry AC (1-212) 834-4951 Harry Downie (1-212) 270-9500 Global Markets Strategy J P M O R G A N

john.f.barry@jpmorgan.com harry.j.downie@jpmorgan.com US Treasury Market Daily

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC 29 June 2026

Jason Hunter AC (1-212) 270-0034 Liam L Wash (1-212) 834-5230

jason.x.hunter@jpmorgan.com liam.wash@jpmchase.com

Market views

Front-end yields rose by 1-2bp and the curve flattened by 2bp after initially drifting

higher overnight following DM peers. In the absence of major economic data releases,

market focus turned to the long-awaited announcement of the Supreme Court’s decision

in the case of Trump v. Cook. The 5-4 ruling allows Governor Cook to remain in her seat

while the challenge to her dismissal moves forward, removing at least one tail risk to the

economic outlook. The majority opinion also reaffirmed the historical significance of

the Fed’s independent nature, though the actual ruling in the case was nuanced and left

many questions about the Fed’s power unanswered (see Fed independence day, barely,

Michael Feroli, 6/29/26). While the impact to Treasury yields from the decision was

fairly muted, given the outcome was widely expected, this decision helps further allay

concerns about Fed independence. Looking ahead to tomorrow, we expect overall job

openings in May to tick down to 7.400mn, lowering the openings rate to 4.4% from

4.6% in the prior report, reflecting normalization in the professional and business

services openings category in April. Meanwhile, we expect the Conference Board

consumer confidence index to increase by 0.9 to 94.0 in June, boosted by declining

gasoline prices and MoU headlines (see US Weekly Prospects, Michael Feroli, 6/26/26).

Technical Analysis