Vonovia SE: Shares should have (at least) bounced by now

Research evidence excerpt

Vonovia SE: Shares should have (at least) bounced by now

J P M O R G A N Europe Equity Research

30 June 2026

Vonovia SE Overweight

VNAn.DE, VNA GR

Shares should have (at least) bounced by now Price (29 Jun 26):€21.22

Price Target (Dec-27):€34.50

Vonovia shares continue to struggle to gain traction even as interest rate headwinds European Property

ACmoderate. Traditionally, when Vonovia’s own debt yields decline, the share price Neil Green, CFA

rises...and yet we have seen c. 35bps of compression since May highs and the shares (44-20) 7134-4478

are still (3%) lower...a more normal reaction would be up HSD%. We also look at the neil.d.green@jpmorgan.com

evolution of German house price inflation and what the stock is now pricing in as J.P. Morgan Securities plc

further reasons as to why the shares should have (at least) bounced by now. We Vanessa M Guy

recognize that progress against the strategic objectives (and a more stable rate (44-20) 7742-4521

vanessa.guy@jpmorgan.com

outlook) will be needed for a sustained rally, but with c.60% upside, we have a long J.P. Morgan Securities plc

way to go before the equity market needs to price this in.

Krishna Sathwik Beechu

• Shares should have bounced by now: (1)Marginal debt costs have come (91-22) 6157 5847

down c. 35bps from May highs, and the shares are lower (3%) vs. a more krishna.s.beechu@jpmchase.com

J.P. Morgan India Private Limited

’normal’ HSD% bounce (Fig.1). (2) Since the peak in house prices, VNA’s

share price has exhibited a relationship with HPI, which has recently broken

down implying the market may be factoring in (notable) value declines to Style Exposure

come, which we don’t forecast (Fig. 6&7). (3) The current share price reflects

a discount to underlying value (GAV) that is wider than our estimate of