Zegna Group: Q2/H1 trading update preview

Research evidence excerpt

Zegna Group: Q2/H1 trading update preview

Chiara Battistini AC Europe Equity Research

(39-02) 8895-2700 30 June 2026 J P M O R G A N

chiara.x.battistini@jpmorgan.com

Price Performance Summary Investment Thesis and Valuation

Investment Thesis

Ermenegildo Zegna Group is one of the key Italian luxury

players in the RTW, leather accessories and footwear space with

its portfolio including three brands: Zegna, Thom Browne, and

Tom Ford Fashion. The group has developed very high-quality

vertically integrated industrial capabilities (Filiera structure),

best-in-class craftsmanship, and true exclusivity through its

bespoke and made-to-measure services, all increasingly

important features to cater to the evolving luxury consumer

paradigm. These superior capabilities, along with DTC

YTD 1m 3m 12m expansion and a personalized clienteling approach, should

Abs 25.6% -12.4% 31.9% 50.5% enable the group to acquire and retain true luxury customers,

Rel 4.3% -15.6% 9.0% 12.1%

expand its consumer base, increase cross-selling, drive sales

Company Data densities at Zegna brand and improve profitability over time

Shares O/S (mn) 259 across brands, particularly at Thom Browne and Tom Ford,

52-week range ($) 15.44-7.61 where strategic transformations are well underway. We think

Market cap ($ mn) 3,338.88

Exchange rate 1.00 such growth prospects and solid execution at the group level

Free float (%) 30.0% should support the shares and valuations. We rate the stock

3M ADV (mn) 1.00 Overweight.

3M ADV ($ mn) 13.2

Volatility (90 Day) 44 Valuation

Index RUSSELL 2000

BBG ANR (Buy | Hold | Sell) 8|5|0 Our Dec-27 DCF target price is based on FY26-FY30 explicit

forecasts, medium-term growth of 4.5%, terminal growth of

Key Metrics (FYE Dec)

2.5%, and a WACC of 9.1%.

€ in millions FY25A FY26E FY27E FY28E