ASPEED Technology

Research evidence excerpt

ASPEED Technology

Global Markets Research

ASPEED Technology 5274.TWO 5274 TT 30 June 2026

EQUITY: TECHNOLOGY

RatingCustomer demand continues to rise; raise TP Remains Buy

Despite overbooking risks, demand continues to rise; we expect further Target price

Increased from TWD 19,100.00earnings upside TWD 11,500.00

Order outlook momentum continues; reiterate Buy Closing26 June price2026 TWD 15,615.00

We raised our 2026F BMC (baseboard management controller) shipment estimate for ASPEED

from 22mn in Dec-25 to 25-30mn in Mar-26 owing to the strong demand for both general servers Implied upside +22.3%

and AI servers, and also our expectation of overbooking. Over the past three months, we continue

to see upward revision in customer orders, as reflected in ASPEED’s book-to-bill ratio (>2). The Market Cap (USD mn) 18,510.9

advent of agentic AI is driving a significant rise in CPU server demand. Although substrate ADT (USD mn) 148.2

constraint could potentially cap 3Q26F revenue upside (conservative guidance of TWD4.1-4.3bn

vs. Bloomberg consensus at TWD4.3bn, we expect TWD4.7bn), we expect 4Q26F to record Relative performance chart

significant revenue growth q-q on improved supply with more OSAT vendors joining. We estimate

total BMC shipments in 2026F to reach ~33mn. The order momentum should sustain into 2027F,

based on our industry checks and ASPEED’s comment about a huge backlog. We estimate total

BMC shipments to experience another signifiant surge and reach 37mn in 2027F. We maintain our

view that the strong booking may carry some underlying risk (i.e. correction). We believe the

substantial order momentum could still include stockpiling amid a tight supply/cost inflationary

environment, while it doesn’t necessarily indicate customers are willing to slow down procurement