Daily Economic Briefing: Springing into summer

Research evidence excerpt

Daily Economic Briefing: Springing into summer

J P M O R G A N Global Economic Research

29 June 2026

Daily Economic Briefing

Springing into summer

• Our view that we are in the midst of a cyclical upturn in global activity has been Economic and Policy Research

validated by incoming reports showing strong momentum in business Nora Szentivanyi

spending and global industrial activity during 1H26. The question now is (44-20) 7134-7544

whether there will be any material loss in momentum around mid-year as a nora.szentivanyi@jpmorgan.com

result of a March-May slide in business confidence and a squeeze on household J.P. Morgan Securities plc

purchasing power. Absent a material loss of momentum, the case for strong Fabio Tomasoni

2H26 global growth looks good, particularly as energy prices look set to shift fabio.tomasoni@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities plc

from headwinds to tailwinds.

Maia Crook

• We believe this week’s June data flow will be more consistent with sustained (1-212) 622-8435

momentum in key releases. This quarter’s slide in business sentiment was maia.crook@jpmorgan.com

concentrated in Western Europe and a rebound in Euro area June flash PMI was JPMorgan Chase Bank NA

followed today by a stronger-than-expected 1.3 pts EC economic sentiment Joseph Lupton

indicator. The rise was led by consumers — amid easing inflation worries — (1-212) 834-5735

but saw business sentiment lift in all sectors outside construction. We have joseph.p.lupton@jpmorgan.com

JPMorgan Chase Bank NA

revised up our 2Q Euro area GDP forecast to 0.25%ar and see upside risks to

3Q.

• This week also delivers the June manufacturing PMI and US employment

report, both of which should further support our view of a cyclical lift. The