Argentina: Monthly activity swings persist amid uneven rebound

Research evidence excerpt

Argentina: Monthly activity swings persist amid uneven rebound

J P M O R G A N Latin America Economic Research

29 June 2026

Argentina

Monthly activity swings persist amid uneven rebound

Following a 3.1% m/m sa surge in March, the strongest monthly gain in at least a Economic and Policy Research

year, activity lost momentum in April, falling -1.5% m/m, sa. Year-to-date Diego W. Pereira

dynamics continue to show an unusual pattern marked by sharp month-to-month (1-212) 834-4321

swings. After the quarterly national accounts revisions, the smoother three-month diego.w.pereira@jpmorgan.com

trend has cooled, pushing sequential growth into negative territory at -1.5% 3m/3m J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

saar, down from a revised 3.0% saar in 1Q26. On an annual basis, activity rose Lucila Barbeito

1.3%oya, sa, and 1.6%oya nsa (following a 6.2%oya print in March). (54-11) 4348-7229

lucila.barbeito@jpmorgan.com

JPMorgan Chase Bank Sucursal Buenos Aires

Beneath the headline volatility, sectoral performance remains uneven, with

contractions dominating in April. Agriculture, manufacturing, and construction

declined on a monthly basis according to JPM’s seasonal adjustment, while gains

were limited to energy, mining, and selected services. Notably, most sectors that

contracted in April had posted strong gains in March. Over-year-ago data provide

a clearer picture of underlying trends. Agriculture and mining continue to anchor

growth, expanding 10.9%oya and 17.1%oya, respectively. By contrast,

manufacturing, construction, and commerce remain under pressure, down -2.9%,

-1.8%, and -3.2%oya. Fishing, despite its limited weight in GDP, recorded a sharp

29%oya contraction. Services showed a mixed performance.

Overall, the expansion remains uneven, as expected, in the first half of the year.